Last October, Gold Led Africa's Markets. This October, It Sank Them.
A year ago, gold miners and a roaring Lagos market carried African stocks. This October the commodities split in half — Brent crude up 13.6%, gold down 6.8%, platinum down 16.4% — and the leaderboard turned over with them. Same continent, same month, opposite result.
A dated snapshot. Figures are month-end or late-October readings for 2025 and 2026, taken from the sources listed at the end. Nothing here is a recommendation, and one month is not a trend.
The short version
- Nigeria still rose 1.23% for the month and is up 63.42% in 2026 — but that is a long way below last October's 8.0% jump.
- South Africa's All Share Index slipped 0.8%, after gaining 1.64% in October 2025.
- Kenya and Egypt each fell about 4%.
- One name tied it together: Aliko Dangote. His cement company rallied 33% in Lagos, and his purchase of a quarter of Kenya Pipeline Company sent that stock up 66% in Nairobi.
October scorecard: 2026 vs 2025
October month return. Sources: Nairametrics, Leadership, Anchor Capital, Simeka, Kenyan Wall Street, Enwealth.
Egypt is off the chart because a matching October 2025 month-end figure wasn't available from a source we could verify. Its EGX30 fell about 4.4% this October.
What moved Africa's markets: oil up, gold down
The driver was commodities moving in opposite directions. African markets lean heavily on both, so the split showed up everywhere.
- Oil surged. Brent crude rose 13.6% in October and is up 93.3% for the year, passing $117 a barrel on October 30 amid Middle East tensions.
- Gold slid. It fell 6.8% for the month and is down 10.3% in 2026, closing the week of October 23 at $3,993.96 — below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July. A year earlier, gold rose 3.7% in October and hit a record $4,381 on October 20, 2025.
- Platinum and palladium crashed, down 16.4% and 19.0% for the month. That hit South Africa hardest, since it produces most of the world's platinum.
- Rates stayed high. The US Federal Reserve held in October after a surprise hike in September — its first increase since July 2023. Higher-for-longer rates hurt gold, which pays no interest.
In plain terms: if you owned African oil and energy stocks, October was good. If you owned African gold and platinum miners, it hurt. This is the same mechanism we traced in the Strait of Hormuz piece — a supply shock in one commodity reprices entire national stock markets that happen to be built on it.
Country by country
Nigeria: still Africa's hottest market, but cooling
The NGX All-Share Index rose from 251,211.67 to 254,299.49 in October, a 1.23% gain that lifted market value to ₦165.11 trillion. It is up 63.42% for 2026, led by an oil and gas index that has gained 127.9% this year.
October started weak, then rallied 3.81% in the final eight trading days. Dangote Cement led, jumping 33.12% to ₦1,420 after a 41.5% rise in nine-month pre-tax profit.
Versus last year: October 2025 was far stronger, with the index up 8.0% in a single month. Even so, the index now sits about 65% above where it ended October 2025 — a slower month on a much higher base.
South Africa: oil winners, mining losers
The FTSE/JSE All Share Index fell 0.8% in October and is down 7.1% for 2026. Resource stocks dropped 9.2%, while industrials gained 3.7% and financials 2.7%.
| October 2026 | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Sasol | +26.3% | Oil and fuels |
| Pick n Pay | +24.8% | Food retail |
| SPAR | +20.4% | Food retail |
| Impala Platinum | −16.6% | Platinum crash |
| Sibanye-Stillwater | −15.7% | Platinum and gold |
| Harmony Gold | −15.6% | Gold below $4,000 |
| AngloGold Ashanti | −12.8% | Gold below $4,000 |
Versus last year: in October 2025 the All Share rose 1.64%, and gold and platinum miners had more than doubled through that September. This year the same miners are the main drag. Nothing about those companies changed much in twelve months — the metal price did.
Kenya: Dangote's big bet amid a selloff
The NSE All Share Index fell 4.35% for October through the 23rd, its fourth straight weekly loss, after a 2.28% drop in September. Foreign investors have pulled a net KSh17.79 billion out of Nairobi this year.
The standout was Kenya Pipeline Company, up 65.93% (from KSh9.04 to KSh15) after Dangote bought a 24.76% stake for about KSh42.5 billion. Olympia Capital rose 155% after a politician took a 9.76% stake.
Versus last year: the index rose 5.48% in October 2025 and was up 52.5% for that year. The reversal is almost exactly the opposite shape.
Worth noticing: a single stock up 66% sat inside a market down 4.35%. Index level and individual holdings are different questions — something worth remembering before reading any one month's headline as a verdict on a whole country.
Egypt: a sharp late-month drop
The EGX30 fell from 51,894.83 at the end of September to 49,596.14 on October 29, about 4.4%. That includes back-to-back drops of 3.41% and 3.56% on October 22 and 25. The index is still up 18.6% for 2026 and about 30% over the past 12 months.
African stocks you can follow from the US
You don't need a Johannesburg brokerage account to track this story. Several of October's biggest movers trade in New York as ADRs — the same access question we went through in Seven African Markets Are Beating the S&P 500.
| Company | US ticker | What it does | October 2026 (JSE, rand) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sasol | SSL | Fuels and chemicals | +26.3% |
| AngloGold Ashanti | AU | Gold mining | −12.8% |
| Harmony Gold | HMY | Gold mining | −15.6% |
| Sibanye-Stillwater | SBSW | Platinum and gold mining | −15.7% |
For broader exposure, investors often look at country and regional ETFs such as EZA (South Africa) and AFK (Africa). Note that the ADR return in dollars will differ from the rand figure above, because the currency moves too — a point we dug into with India.
The oil-versus-gold challenge
Build two paper portfolios with the same practice money: one energy (SSL), one miners (AU, HMY, SBSW). Track them through November and see which side wins if oil and gold keep moving apart. Real market prices, $10,000 of practice money, no risk.
Start paper trading →What to watch in November
- Oil. If Brent stays above $100, energy names like Sasol and Nigeria's oil stocks keep their edge.
- Gold below $4,000. A rebound would help South Africa's miners recover; a further slide would extend their losses.
- The Fed. Any hint of another hike would weigh on gold and on emerging markets broadly.
- Nigeria's momentum. FTSE Russell restored Nigeria to its Frontier index on September 21 and the central bank cut rates the next day. Watch whether foreign money keeps coming in.
- Kenya's foreign outflows. Dangote's pipeline deal brought in buying, but the broad market kept falling.
What a beginner should take from this
A commodity price is often the whole story. South Africa's miners didn't get worse at mining. Platinum fell 16.4% in a month.
"Africa" is not one trade. Nigeria rose and Kenya fell in the same month, because one exports oil and the other does not.
Last year's leaders are not a guide. Gold miners led October 2025 and dragged October 2026 — twelve months apart, same stocks, opposite direction.
We won't tell you where oil or gold goes next; our editorial policy keeps us out of forecasts. What this month does show cleanly is how a commodity move travels into a stock index, and that is worth understanding whatever you own.
Sources
- Anchor Capital, "A month of contrasts as global markets end mixed while the JSE records a modest decline in October" — JSE All Share, resources, industrials and financials; Brent, gold, platinum and palladium moves; best and worst JSE performers — anchorcapital.co.za
- Nairametrics, "Best performing Nigerian stocks in October" — NGX All-Share levels, market capitalisation, Dangote Cement move and profit — nairametrics.com
- QNC News, "Oil and gas stocks lead Nigerian market gains" — Nigerian oil and gas index year-to-date — qncnews.com
- Leadership, Nigerian market report, October 2025 — the 8.0% month gain — leadership.ng
- Money254, "Top performing NSE stocks in October 2026" — Kenya Pipeline Company and Olympia Capital moves, Dangote stake size — money254.co.ke
- Kenyan Wall Street, "NSE records four-week losing streak since 2024 despite Dangote's block trade" — NSE All Share monthly and September moves — kenyanwallstreet.com
- Kenyan Wall Street, "NSE sheds KSh134bn in three weeks as foreign selling accelerates" — net foreign outflow figure — kenyanwallstreet.com
- Enwealth, "Macro-Economic Highlights, October 2025" — Kenya's October 2025 and full-year 2025 index moves — enwealth.co.ke (PDF)
- Simeka, "Markets at a glance, October 2025" — JSE All Share October 2025 move — surf.sun.ac.za (PDF)
- Business Report, "The JSE rally broadens in October as precious metal miners lose momentum" — gold's October 2025 move and record price — persfin.co.za
- countryeconomy.com, EGX30 history — Egypt index levels and daily drops — countryeconomy.com
- Golden Ark Reserve, gold price forecasts and October 2026 price — the $3,993.96 weekly close — goldenarkreserve.com
- Rio Times, "Stretched valuations: Nigerian stock market Q4 2026" — FTSE Russell Frontier reinstatement and the central bank rate cut — riotimesonline.com